While the idea of using a market stems from the usual market fundamentalism that pervades so many institutions, the idea that automatic aggregate processes/complex random systems can achieve better short-term success in approximating solutions is not new nor totally unfounded. The entire field of artificial life is based on variations of this theme, and it often stands up well compared to more direct methods (both statistical and deterministic). It is still an interesting, if macabre, experiment to see if a complex random system (such as a market) can outperform a direct search (ie by the FBI) or at least supplement it in predicting the possibility of attack.
Of course, there are numerous flaws with this experiment, in particular flaws in the market model, given that they were aiming to run this experiment under realistic conditions. Most of the abstract and technically correct basis for market optimization breaks down under non-ideal conditions (no perfect knowledge, no perfect "rationality", etc...).
In any case, diversions like these obscure the point of how and why terrorism exists in the first place. Ooops! Did I say that? I guess I must be a root-cause moral relativist or something. ;)
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Withdrawn
Date: 2003-07-31 02:16 pm (UTC)While the idea of using a market stems from the usual market fundamentalism that pervades so many institutions, the idea that automatic aggregate processes/complex random systems can achieve better short-term success in approximating solutions is not new nor totally unfounded. The entire field of artificial life is based on variations of this theme, and it often stands up well compared to more direct methods (both statistical and deterministic). It is still an interesting, if macabre, experiment to see if a complex random system (such as a market) can outperform a direct search (ie by the FBI) or at least supplement it in predicting the possibility of attack.
Of course, there are numerous flaws with this experiment, in particular flaws in the market model, given that they were aiming to run this experiment under realistic conditions. Most of the abstract and technically correct basis for market optimization breaks down under non-ideal conditions (no perfect knowledge, no perfect "rationality", etc...).
In any case, diversions like these obscure the point of how and why terrorism exists in the first place. Ooops! Did I say that? I guess I must be a root-cause moral relativist or something. ;)